Category: Stock

  • Is Fire-grilled Chicken even possibly a value or growth investment? | A  Quick Look into El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO) | Trading Record: 7-Jun-2024 LOCO Entry @ $10.45

    Is Fire-grilled Chicken even possibly a value or growth investment? | A Quick Look into El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO) | Trading Record: 7-Jun-2024 LOCO Entry @ $10.45

    Note: This post is written for my personal trading record purpose only, so this should not be taken as any form of investment advice or guidance to follow. Discussion is welcome, while you must do your own research for our own risks.

    Discussion

    What is El Pollo Loco?

    El Pollo Loco is a quick-service Mexican restaurant chain known for its delicious fire-grilled chicken. With over 475 locations across the United States, they offer a menu that includes tacos, burritos, bowls, and salads, all centered around their signature citrus-marinated chicken cooked over an open flame. If you’re craving flavorful chicken, El Pollo Loco is definitely worth a visit.

    Is El Pollo Loco popular in the United State?

    El Pollo Loco has gained popularity in the USA for several reasons:

    Flavorful Chicken: Their signature fire-grilled chicken is marinated with citrus and cooked over an open flame, resulting in juicy, flavorful meat.

    Affordability: El Pollo Loco offers tasty Mexican-inspired dishes at reasonable prices, making it accessible to a wide range of customers.

    Variety: Their menu includes tacos, burritos, bowls, and salads, catering to different preferences.

    Consistency: El Pollo Loco has maintained its quality and cooking methods for over 40 years, creating a loyal customer base.

    Overall, it’s a go-to spot for those seeking delicious, affordable chicken meals.

    Why is Mexican food liked in the United State?

    Mexican cuisine’s popularity in the United States can be attributed to several factors:

    1. Rich Flavors: Mexican food offers a vibrant blend of flavors, thanks to ingredients like avocados, corn, tomatoes, chilis, beans, and limes. These flavors resonate with diverse palates.
    2. Healthy Ingredients: Authentic Mexican dishes often include healthy components such as avocados, beans, and savory meats. The use of fresh ingredients contributes to its appeal1.
    3. Cultural Influence: Mexican cuisine has deep roots, influenced by indigenous traditions and later shaped by Spanish conquistadors. Over time, it became popularized through Tex-Mex offerings like burritos2.
    4. Affordability: Mexican food encourages consumer trial due to its cost-effectiveness. Many meals are priced under $10, making it accessible to a wide audience3.

    In summary, the rich flavors, healthy ingredients, cultural heritage, and affordability contribute to the widespread love for Mexican food in the United States.

    Is El Pollo Loco a listed company?

    El Pollo Loco is a publicly traded company. It is listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange under the ticker symbol LOCO.

    As of June 7, 2024, El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) stock is trading at $10.36 per share on the NasdaqGS, with a market cap of approximately $306.3 million1. Here’s a summary of its recent performance:

    • 1-Year Return: 9.28%
    • 3-Year Return: 29.51%
    • 5-Year Return: 7.67%

    How is LOCO’s financial performance and growth recently?

    Let’s dive into El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.’s recent financial performance:

    • Total Revenue: In Q1 2024, the company’s total revenue increased by 1.4% to $116.2 million compared to Q1 2023.
    • Company-Operated Restaurant Revenue: It decreased by 0.7% to $97.2 million due to refranchising activities.
    • Franchise Revenue: Rose by an impressive 17.3% to $11.3 million, driven by new restaurant openings and increased sales.
    • Net Income: GAAP net income was $5.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share. Adjusted net income was $6.8 million, or $0.22 per diluted share.
    • Restaurant Contribution Margin: Improved significantly to 17.6% from 15% year-over-year, thanks to higher menu prices and operational efficiencies.

    Overall, El Pollo Loco Holdings is navigating growth amidst challenges, with positive points such as comparable restaurant sales increases and franchise revenue growth. However, there are also challenges, including labor inflation and restructuring costs.

    What are the challenges that LOCO is facing?

    El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. faces several challenges in its operations:

    1. Labor Inflation: Like many restaurant chains, El Pollo Loco grapples with rising labor costs. As minimum wages increase and competition for workers intensifies, managing payroll expenses becomes crucial. Balancing employee compensation with profitability is a delicate dance.
    2. Restructuring Costs: The company has incurred expenses related to restructuring efforts. These costs can arise from changes in organizational structure, streamlining operations, or adapting to market shifts. While necessary for long-term viability, they impact short-term financials.
    3. Competition: The quick-service restaurant industry is fiercely competitive. El Pollo Loco competes with other fast-food chains, local eateries, and even grocery stores offering prepared meals. Staying relevant and differentiating themselves in this crowded space is a constant challenge.
    4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain disruptions affect the availability and cost of ingredients. Whether due to transportation issues, weather events, or geopolitical factors, these disruptions can impact El Pollo Loco’s ability to maintain consistent menu offerings.
    5. Consumer Preferences and Trends: Consumer tastes evolve, and health-conscious choices are on the rise. El Pollo Loco must adapt its menu to cater to changing preferences while retaining its signature flame-grilled chicken offerings.
    6. Real Estate Costs: Securing prime locations for new restaurants can be expensive. Balancing the benefits of visibility and foot traffic with the associated costs is crucial for expansion.

    Despite these challenges, El Pollo Loco continues to innovate, expand, and serve its loyal customers.

    Setup Summary

    DateTickerActionReferenceReference PriceJustificationPositionPriceSizeStop LossRisk ToleranceRisk Exposure%Risk Exposure$
    07/06/2024LOCOEntry20MA10.45Volume contract at 20MA120010.5212,62410.2520MA-2%-2.57%-$324.00

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

  • Trading Record: 4-Jun-2024 OKLO Entry @ $9.9

    Trading Record: 4-Jun-2024 OKLO Entry @ $9.9

    Discussion

    As discussed in an other (testing) article earlier, Oklo Inc. is a company based in Santa Clara, California, that is working on advanced fission power plants. Their goal is to provide clean, reliable, and affordable energy using next-generation fast reactor technology based on their development and deployment SMRs.

    Oklo wrote in their X (Twitter) page: “This week, the @WhiteHouse issued a fact sheet detailing recent actions taken to support the growth of both existing and new nuclear energy. Oklo is proud of our long-standing and many partnerships with the @GovNuclear including fabricating fuel and having a site use permit for our first plant, and on fuel recycling.”

    What is the Fact Sheet by the White House about?

    Nuclear power has long been a significant contributor to clean energy in the United States, accounting for 19% of total energy production last year. The industry provides jobs for nearly 60,000 workers and supports hundreds of thousands more.

    As the U.S. energy system undergoes transformative changes, the Biden-Harris Administration aims to achieve a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035 while ensuring affordable, reliable power for consumers.

    Alongside wind and solar, new nuclear reactor designs are gaining attention for their ability to produce clean energy. The Administration’s efforts include reducing reliance on Russian uranium, extending the service lives of existing reactors, and promoting new deployments. Decarbonizing the power system remains a critical challenge, requiring expertise and innovation .

    To be continued…

    Setup Summary

    DateTickerActionReferenceReference PriceJustificationPositionPriceSizeStop LossRisk ToleranceRisk Exposure%Risk Exposure$
    4/6/2024OKLOEntrySpeculationn/aSpeculation10009.99,9009Around 10%-9.09%-$900.00

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

  • Trading Record: 31-May-2024 SQQQ Stop Gain @ $10.575 (Ver AI)

    Trading Record: 31-May-2024 SQQQ Stop Gain @ $10.575 (Ver AI)

    Note: This post is written for my personal trading record purpose only, so this should not be taken as any form of investment advice or guidance to follow. Discussion is welcome, while you must do your own research for our own risks.

    This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-44.png

    Discussion

    The Nasdaq and the broader market turned bearish and sold off even after lower-than-expected PCE data was released. Sometimes, it’s more luck than skill to identify an inverted movement following better-than-expected data.

    In another scenario, the Nasdaq and QQQ initially moved upward after the data release but quickly reversed course. The market experienced a sell-off, and QQQ dropped by around 2%. In such cases, it’s prudent to secure profits before waiting for the market to stabilize based on the 620-chart or any signs of finding its footing.

    Based on the daily chart, QQQ experienced a breakdown below both the 10-day moving average (10MA) yesterday and the 20-day moving average (20MA) today. This decline was accompanied by higher trading volume, signaling significant selling pressure on market leaders.

    This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-45.png

    Turning our attention to the 620-chart or 5-minute timeframe, we observe a robust upside bar in QQQ precisely at 12:20 AM HKT (GMT+8). Recognizing this bullish signal, I promptly closed my SQQQ position, considering the profit already gained and the potential for a swift reversion that could erode those gains. Let’s delve into the risk dynamics:

    • Our original risk tolerance level set for SQQQ’s 3x leveraged position was approximately 1%.
    • Remarkably, a movement of up to 2% in QQQ corresponds to a substantial 6% movement in SQQQ due to its leverage factor—approximately six times our expected risk exposure.

    Guided by the “Perfection of Generosity” or “Perfection of Non-greed” under Six Perfections or Six Pāramitās, seizing this moment as a stop gain opportunity aligns with prudent risk management.

    This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-46.png

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

    Remarks: Reposted for AI edition testing.

  • Trading Record: 31-May-2024 SQQQ Stop Gain @ $10.575 (Ver AI)

    Trading Record: 31-May-2024 SQQQ Stop Gain @ $10.575 (Ver AI)

    Note: This post is written for my personal trading record purpose only, so this should not be taken as any form of investment advice or guidance to follow. Discussion is welcome, while you must do your own research for our own risks.

    Discussion

    The Nasdaq and market turns very bearish and sells off even after a lower than expected PCE data is released. This is sometimes more luck than skill that you find an inverted movement after finding a better than expected data.

    The Nasdaq and QQQ turns upside after the data was release while it literally U turns after a few bars. The market sells off and QQQ drops up to around 2%. In this case, I think this is good to lock down the profit before the market find its feet based on the 620-chart or the market shows some side of finding its foot.

    Based on the daily chart, QQQ broke down into the 10MA yesterday and 20MA today with higher volume as the market leaders are being sold off hardly.

    Based on the 620-chart or 5-minute below, QQQ shows a relatively strong upside bar in 12:20AM in HKT GMT+8, at which I closed the SQQQ position considering the profit and a possible reversion which would likely trim down the gain quickly. Since our original risk tolerance level or exposure if set a around 1% in SQQQ’s 3x leveraged position, a up to 2% movement in QQQ is equivalent a 6% movement in SQQQ,, which is around 6 times gain over my expected risk exposure. Based on the Perfection of Generosity, or Perfection of Non-greed, this should be a good stop gain opportunity.

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

  • Trading Record: 30-May-2024 SQQQ Entry @ $9.815

    Trading Record: 30-May-2024 SQQQ Entry @ $9.815

    Note: This post is written for my personal trading record purpose only, so this should not be taken as any form of investment advice or guidance to follow. Discussion is welcome, while you must do your own research for our own risks.

    Discussion

    The market has been rebounding strongly and extending for more than a month. However, underneath the strong movement in Nasdaq index driven mainly by the recent uptrend of NVDA, other names including the DJI has topped and dropping sharping from 20th May. The S&P 500 is also getting down to the 20MA with near average volume after topping and moving sideway from 15th May.

    On 30th May, in the big names of Nasdaq, MSFT is breaking the 20MA with some strong volume expected by the trading day. Other names are moving sideway with NVDA being strong and consolidating around the recent historical.

    The entry into SQQQ is a speculative play against the QQQ to capture if there is any sell-off or stronger consolidation around the recently high. Meanwhile, it is observed that the interest rate level increases as the 10Y yield TNX touching 4.638 before coming back slightly after the GPD deflator release.

    As this is a speculative play for local top, we would try to keep the stop-loss tight to limit the risk exposure. As we have entered the short using the leveraged -3x SQQQ, we would derive the appropriate stop-loss using the 10MA of QQQ, which is less than 0.3% above the current price when writing. Therefore, we try to limit the loss by 1% of our entry position.

    Meanwhile, the tight stop-loss in MP Materials Corp. is confirmed to be a sensible and effective one as MP breaks down into the 50MA line in high volume in the next day.

    Setup Summary

    DateTickerActionReferenceReference PriceJustificationPositionPriceSizeStop LossRisk ToleranceRisk Exposure%Risk Exposure$
    30/5/2024SQQQEntry10MA of QQQ9.76QQQ breaking down 10MA13009.81512,7609.7168510MA-1%-1.00%-$127.60

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

  • Trading Record: 29-May-2024 MP Materials Corp. (MP) Stop Loss @ $16.65

    Note: This post is written for my personal trading record purpose only, so this should not be taken as any form of investment advice or guidance to follow. Discussion is welcome, while you must do your own research for our own risks.

    Discussion

    MP Materials Corp ($MP) position entered yesterday was kicked out immediately by the mechanical stop loss order, as it broke down into the 20MA with an increase in volume. This immediate kick-out might be triggered by many factors including increasing yield, while this is not observed in other precious metal or commodity stocks.

    In this situation, the failure might be more explained by the weakness of MP without solid demand or enough consolidation after the two recent pocket pivots on 8th April and 14th May.

    Insight & Applied Buddhism

    Although the first setup comes into a immediate kick-out, a good discpline for stop-loss order and thus limit in risk exposure are maintained, which reduces the psychological influence and accumulation of bad emotion for future trading. I try to elaborate below the applied buddhist practice by six perfections, or six paramitas, in Mahayanma Buddhism based on Prajñapāramitā sūtras (प्रज्ञापारमिता सूत्र):

    Six Paramitas in Trading Behavoral Control

    1. Perfection of Generosity (Dāna pāramitā; दान पारमिता)
      – Control in small entry position to avoid over-sizing and limit risk exposure
    2. Perfection of Discipline (Śīla pāramitā; शील पारमिता)
      – Use in stop-loss order to avoid manual control and decision making
    3. Perfection of Patience (Śīla pāramitā; क्षान्ति पारमिता)
      – No close and over monitoring in movement after setup
    4. Perfection of Diligence (Vīrya pāramitā; वीर्य पारमिता)
      – To understand and accept impermenance of the market
      – To investigate, review and enhance the next trade (Like this post)
    5. Perfection of Concentration (Śīla pāramitā; ध्यान पारमिता)
      – Be mindful of the mind and emotion like the Greed manifesting before setup and Hatred after the kick-out
      – Meditate and contempltae on the psychological reflection
      – Concentrate and review the execution
    6. Perfection of Wisdom (Śīla pāramitā; प्रज्ञा पारमिता)
      – The first time to start writing a trading log in order to generate insight on both the market, investment performance and self reflection etc.

    Setup Summary (To be updated)

    DateTickerActionReferenceReference PriceJustificationPositionPriceSizeStop LossRisk ToleranceRisk Exposure%Risk Exposure$
    28/5/2024MPEntry20MA$17.00Volume contract at 20MA T-1800$17.0513,64016.6520MA-2%-2.35%-$320.00
    MP Materials Corp. (MP) Setup Summary

    Chart

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

  • Trading Record: 28-May-2024 MP Materials Corp. (MP) Entry @ $17.05

    Trading Record: 28-May-2024 MP Materials Corp. (MP) Entry @ $17.05

    Note: This post is written for my personal trading record purpose only, so this should not be taken as any form of investment advice or guidance to follow. Discussion is welcome, while you must do your own research for our own risks.

    MP Materials Corp. (Credit: Forbes)

    Discussion

    MP Materials Corp ($MP) experienced continuous downtrend after it topped in early April 2022. In early May 2024, MP successfully cleared the 20-week moving average with an extended pocket pivot on 14th May 2024, which might mark an institution buying.

    However, the pocket pivot breakout did not follow through and failed immediately on 14th May 2024, with a volume higher than average.

    After around a week of selling and consolidation, MP experienced a volume dry-up and closed above 20MA on 24th May 2024, which might indicate a low selling pressure and support at the 20MA.

    Accordingly, an initial position is setup using the 20MA – 2% as the tight selling guide with a maximum risk exposure up to -$320.

    Setup Summary

    DateTickerActionReferenceReference PriceJustificationPositionPriceSizeStop LossRisk ToleranceRisk Exposure%Risk Exposure$
    28/5/2024MPEntry20MA$17.00Volume contract at 20MA T-1800$17.0513,64016.6520MA-2%-2.35%-$320.00
    MP Materials Corp. (MP) Setup Summary

    Chart

    MP Materials Corp. (MP) Chart

    My Personal Trading Record :

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fet2gtENwYOVUggm4n4kovbrzdKcbphP7jHsF0V9GOo/edit?usp=drive_link

  • (2) What is OKLO? | How does its IPO perform?

    (2) What is OKLO? | How does its IPO perform?

    Oklo rang the opening bell at the NYSE (Credit: Oklo Twitter)

    “With exceptionally low redemptions, >$300M in capitalisation, and dedicated founders and key investors locked up for up to 3 years, we can’t wait for what’s next on our mission to provide clean, reliable, affordable power!” Oklo posted in its X (former Twitter) page.

    Oklo has been listed and trading under the ticker $OKLO via its merger with the special vehicle AltC Acquisition Corp in NYSE earlier in May 2024, while its stock price slumped hard by more than 50% in the first day. The brutal downturn should have triggered lots of disappointment from its shareholders and long term holders of the former ALCC. Some shareholders and market players even argued this is a scam or shell company as there is so far no actual earning or business doing, as Oklo has not yet deployed its SMRs to any of its partners signing the recent agreements or memorandums.

    In its latest update in X (or Twitter), Oklo posted the the team ringing the opening bell at the NYSE exchange on 24th May 2024, which seemingly symbolised a opening of new page of the company’s vision and mission in the nuclear energy industry.

    The company suggested in its X post that there is so far low in redemptions as the key founders and investors’ positions would be locked for up to 3 years. This should have eliminated part of the market’s concern over insiders selling over the past few days of vigours sell off. With more than $300 million in capitalisation, the company looks forward to work on their mission to provide clean, reliable yet economical nuclear power to its clients and the world, via its development and deployment of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).

    Net Worth Projection of the SMRs market by 2032 (Credit: Precedence Research)

    According to a research released by Precedence Research, the net worth of the SMRs industry is expected to grow to more than $8 billion by 2032. Asia Pacific region is expected to expand at the faster compound annual growth rate (CARG) from 2023 to 2032.

    Based on the snapshot at 2022, heavy water reactors have dominated the industry by Reactor Type, while the application is mostly on power generation segment.

    Is Oklo the next unicorn in the market? How shall we interpret its IPO performance? What should we do if we would like to take a part? We will take about the stock performance of OKLO, entry setup and risk management.